Indiana's Obama Campaign is Sinking Fast

Senator Barack Obama was finally in Northwest Indiana (NWI) today, speaking in Munster, Indiana.  Maybe it was just me, but it seemed as if the people of NWI had little care for this fact.  His appearance might be described as "elitist" considering that it was by invitation only, which means it was a controlled small audience.  He spoke in a town, Munster, which leans heavily Republican, and more importantly is a non-union, non-Hispanic, and non-African-American town.  Citizens in Munster will vote in the Democratic primary, because that is where the fun is, but they will vote for Hillary Clinton not Barack Obama.  And these same people who vote for Hillary in the primary will not necessarily vote for her (or the Democratic presidential nominee) in the fall. 

        The latest poll, from today, shows that Obama is trailing Clinton by 3 % in Lake County and she has the rest of the State.  The largest Democratic vote in Indiana is in Marion County, i.e. Indianapolis, and here in NWI, in particular Lake County.  For Democrats, the primary is won or lost in these two counties.  The reality of the demographics of Indiana is that they favor traditional Democratic candidates during the primary season.  One of the sad realities about the State of Indiana is that it has one of the lowest rate, forty-sixth in the Country, of individuals with a college education.  There is no question that this is quickly becoming Hillary Clinton land.

        Lake County is the most tribal political area in the Country, even surpassing Chicago.  Most of the white voters in the NWI are (sarcasm alert) the gun toting, religion loving, union workers that Obama detests.  He has already indicated his distaste by characterizing them as "bitter."  They are going to be bitter when they vote against him because what really makes them exceptionally bitter is his "spiritual mentor.” 

One thing that is true in Lake County that was not the case in Pennsylvania is that people here in fact are familiar with Rev. Jeremiah Wright's ideology of America.  Why?  Well, it is not just about proximity to Chicago, there is probably a good deal of Rev. Wright's ideology peddled in Gary, Indiana as well (in fact, Lake County, Indiana, is one of the most de facto segregated areas in the United States and if we are to believe Rev. Wright's NAACP speech that is how it should be given those left-brain, right-brain learning differences he espouses).

The only group that will vote un-equivocally for Senator Obama is the African-Americans in Gary and Indianapolis.  That is a given; Obama has been getting approximately 90% of the black vote and there is nothing (even Jeremiah Wright) that appears able to hurt him with that voting demographic.  But statewide, African-Americans only make up about 9% of the overall population.  Gary as usual will fudge the numbers up; but not enough to make a real difference.

Lake County has the highest concentration of Hispanics in Indiana.  Although their turnout generally is low, it will probably be relatively good for this primary because there is a real effort to energize that Hispanic base, especially by Senator Clinton.  Hispanics, in the aggregate, are more likely to vote for Clinton than for Obama.  Some of this has to do with a general distrust by Hispanics of African-American politicians; when Blacks have won positions of power politically in Lake County the perception of Hispanic is that they have had no interest in Hispanic issues, only in getting their vote.  This does not help Obama with that voting demographic. 

On top of all this is the growing perception that Senator Obama's campaign is over.  The "spiritual adviser" of twenty years, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, has shown the reality of what Obama had to commit to so as to get elected in the City of Chicago.  There is nothing that Obama can say to put him outside this belief system that is not going to be strictly opportunistic.

Especially in NWI and Lake County, no one believes that he did not know about Wright's ideas.  Even if they continue to support Obama, they just do not find the Obama "I did not know" defense a credible argument.

Obama, as opposed to Clinton, has had to spend all of his time shoring up his national campaign.  National TV shows that he is currently doing to brace his campaign is of little value in Lake County.  The only thing he has going for him is that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright decided to wait until April/May to go public.  If this had happened in February, there would not be an Obama campaign.

However, it is clear though that the Obama campaign does have a lot of throw away money.  He cannot be here; but his campaign has spent a fortune on mailings.  In Lake County everyone is so used to this that it really is of little electoral consequence; but Hillary's walking door to door here is a Lake County political tradition that does carry weight.

Finally, in the NWI primary, especially Lake County, almost no one votes in the Republican primary, The reason for this is that no one ever runs in the Republican Party in Lake County, because the County is completely controlled by Democrats.  On the Republican side there is not a single contested race.  What occurs in most primaries is that independents and Republicans will, as usual, vote in the Democratic primary.  This will be a good chunk, approximately 25%, of the vote and the majority of it will go to Senator Clinton.  When the general election occurs, most of these people will all vote for McCain.  Indiana is one of the best states for the voters splitting their ballots in the general election.  The president is always Republican and the Congressional delegation is a mixture, even tending toward liberal Democrats.

Five days out, I would project that Senator Clinton will take Indiana by over 10%.  Seeing the disintegration of the Obama campaign in Lake County, a stone's throw from his home, I would further project that Hillary Clinton will beat Obama in North Carolina, or come close enough to count as a win for her.  If these predictions occur, although it is too late to change the delegate numbers, it does comport to the fact that Obama is un-electable.

Comments

[Kim]

Well its obvious now that Obama WAS electable and he won by quite the landslide. I for one am from northwest Indiana and I was extremely stoked when he was in town so please do not speak for all of us since you dont have a clue what the rest of us are thinking. He also took Lake county over McCain in the general so we do not all share your views. I think if the republican party spent less time bringing up Rev. Wright and things like this looking for ways to smear they would have held onto more of the vote. Most the country does not have the free time to worry about what someone who knows a candidate says. I for one am a bit more concerned that McCain seemed out of touch with the economy and the rest of the world. The country is not going to fall for any more horror stories and smearing tactics so the republicans better get with reality and start running on issues instead of trying to inspire people to vote for them out of fear or ignorance or they will never gain the respect they use to have back. I really would like to see a more convervative party in office again. Neither party stands for less government anymore and that is a shame.

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[EJA]

McCain is unelectable. Any true conservative knows this. The idea that we should all (as Republicans) vote for Hillary over Obama in a Democratic primary because she is more "beatable" then Obama is just stupid. I think Rush's chickens are coming home to roost!

[elme]

Obama supporters, hold onto that HOPE Obama's selling because that's all he's GOT when it comes to getting those CHANGES Made.

Obama claims 7 years experience in the Illinois legislature - Working Across the Aisles, Bringing people together to get good CHANGES passed -as exemplified by 26 good bills with his name on them.

A Chicago reporter says all 26 bills were passed in ONE Year.

http://wweek.com/editorial/3418/10516/

EXCERPTS:
But what’s interesting, and almost never discussed, is that he built his entire legislative record in Illinois in a single year.

Republicans controlled the Illinois General Assembly for six years of Obama’s seven-year tenure.

Then Emil Jones Jr. (became the Senate Majority leader), He became Obama’s kingmaker.

Jones appointed Obama sponsor of virtually every high-profile piece of legislation, angering many rank-and-file state legislators who had more seniority than Obama and had spent years championing the bills.

During his seventh year in the state Senate, Obama ... sponsored a whopping 26 bills including many he now cites in his presidential campaign when attacked as inexperienced.

Working Across the Aisles/
Making CHANGES = ZILCH

Taking Credit for Other People's Work/ INTEGRITY = ZERO

HONESTY = ZERO

[elme]

Hey North Carolina . . .

Wanna BUY an old obsolete nuclear power plant? YES? OK, then, just VOTE for Obama.

The nuke industry is planning to build 29 new nukes. ONE of them in North Carolina. (Those Plans are Far advanced - with licensing hearings already scheduled for the first few)

(See Map at NY Times LINK: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/31/washington/31nuclear.html?_r=1&oref=slogin )

Excelon Corp, (largest nuke operator on the planet) headquartered in Illinois, has been one of Obama’s largest contributors ever since he first ran for office.

Obama voted FOR the Cheney Energy Bill of 2005 (H.R. 6) - which ENABLED the nuke industry to start planning to build nukes. (No new nukes have been built for the past 30 years because the banks would not loan the money - too risky.)

The Cheney Energy Bill solved that problem for them by GUARANTEEING Taxpayer PAYBACK of any of the nuke loans that default (The Congressional Budget Office rated the risk of default on the nuke loans at 50% or greater).
GE, Westinghouse, CHENEY, the nuke industry are planning to Reap $BILLIONS --- RISK_FREE from building those nukes, AND, $BILLIONS more from the HIGHER Electricity RATES produced by nukes ... for the next
30--40 years.

Here’s the kicker: Obama has been getting BILLIONS of Dollars worth of FREE Sales PROMOTION *Campaign HELP* From: NBC & MSNBC, and CBS … because GE owns NBC/MSNBC and Westinghouse owns CBS.

(If you check on the NY Times MAP you will see that GE & Westinghouse are planning to build the reactors at most of the planned nuke sites.)

Clinton Voted AGAINST the Cheney Energy Bill & says we can consider nuclear in the future IF they can MAKE IT CHEAPER, and, find a way to dispose of the nuke waste Safely.

That’s the reason WHY the MEDIA has been rabidly PUSHING to SELL you an Obama & slamming and smearing the Clintons on TV all day everyday.

COPY & PASTE and Pass the Word to everybody on your email list and to any blogs, TV, Radio, newspapers you can....particularly in all the upcoming PRIMARY States.

p.s. McCain is pro-nuke too & voted FOR the Cheney energy bill. Its the NEXT Big Cheney MONOPOLY POWER ----Energy Ripoff---- just waiting in the wings for Obama OR McCain to get elected.

“GOING FROM COAL TO NUCLEAR IS LIKE GIVING UP CIGARETTES TO TAKE UP SMOKING CRACK”.

We Need NEW Clean Renewable CHEAPER DE-Centralized, off the Grid, NON-Monopoly energy.

Does it make a lick of Sense to CONTINUE building an extremely complex, expensive, and dangerous technology -Nuclear power plants ... to SPLIT ATOMS ... to Make STEAM? --- When we can INSTEAD, for example, use newer versions of Solar Power Towers like the one in Odeillo France:

http://www.stacey.peak-media.co.uk/Pyrenees/Odeillo/Odeillo.htm

http://www.technologystudent.com/energy1/solar4.htm

Mirrors concentrate solar energy on a Tower. At the focus point the temperature is hot enough to melt steel. The concentrated heat from the sun can be used to make STEAM. Simpler, Cheaper, Safer.

All the good Energy Technologies suitable for our future will be starved, neglected, UN-Developed in order to GET the MONEY for Nukes & MAINTAIN the existing Large -Scale MONOPOLY Power Energy Grid - While most of the rest of the world becomes Cleaner, Greener, And RICHER than U.S.

Say NO to NUKES ... go Forward, NOT BACKWARD.

[Ben Gruszczyk]

It seems that NWI is the permanent home of "Bradley Effect" voting. That is, we lie to pollsters. Those self identifed democrats who eventually vote for republicans are, indeed, a phenomenon. What next? Dogs laying down with cats?

[Nick Kamm]

"The only thing he has going for him is that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright decided to wait until April/May to go public. If this had happened in February, there would not be an Obama campaign."

I don't agree with that, I think his campaign would have survived that.

"Most of the whites in the NWI are the gun totting, religion loving, union workers"

That's what's so great about Indiana!

[Daltsonbriefs]

I can only say I hope you're right. As a strong McCain supporter I'd love to see Indiana matter and make this thing stretch out a longer time.

http://reasonbellpundit.blogspot.com/2008/05/comical-politics-projects-clinton-by-10.html