Senator Barack Obama was finally in Northwest Indiana (NWI) today, speaking in Munster, Indiana. Maybe it was just me, but it seemed as if the people of NWI had little care for this fact. His appearance might be described as "elitist" considering that it was by invitation only, which means it was a controlled small audience. He spoke in a town, Munster, which leans heavily Republican, and more importantly is a non-union, non-Hispanic, and non-African-American town. Citizens in Munster will vote in the Democratic primary, because that is where the fun is, but they will vote for Hillary Clinton not Barack Obama. And these same people who vote for Hillary in the primary will not necessarily vote for her (or the Democratic presidential nominee) in the fall.
The latest poll, from today, shows that Obama is trailing Clinton by 3 % in Lake County and she has the rest of the State. The largest Democratic vote in Indiana is in Marion County, i.e. Indianapolis, and here in NWI, in particular Lake County. For Democrats, the primary is won or lost in these two counties. The reality of the demographics of Indiana is that they favor traditional Democratic candidates during the primary season. One of the sad realities about the State of Indiana is that it has one of the lowest rate, forty-sixth in the Country, of individuals with a college education. There is no question that this is quickly becoming Hillary Clinton land.
Lake County is the most tribal political area in the Country, even surpassing Chicago. Most of the white voters in the NWI are (sarcasm alert) the gun toting, religion loving, union workers that Obama detests. He has already indicated his distaste by characterizing them as "bitter." They are going to be bitter when they vote against him because what really makes them exceptionally bitter is his "spiritual mentor.”
One thing that is true in Lake County that was not the case in Pennsylvania is that people here in fact are familiar with Rev. Jeremiah Wright's ideology of America. Why? Well, it is not just about proximity to Chicago, there is probably a good deal of Rev. Wright's ideology peddled in Gary, Indiana as well (in fact, Lake County, Indiana, is one of the most de facto segregated areas in the United States and if we are to believe Rev. Wright's NAACP speech that is how it should be given those left-brain, right-brain learning differences he espouses).
The only group that will vote un-equivocally for Senator Obama is the African-Americans in Gary and Indianapolis. That is a given; Obama has been getting approximately 90% of the black vote and there is nothing (even Jeremiah Wright) that appears able to hurt him with that voting demographic. But statewide, African-Americans only make up about 9% of the overall population. Gary as usual will fudge the numbers up; but not enough to make a real difference.
Lake County has the highest concentration of Hispanics in Indiana. Although their turnout generally is low, it will probably be relatively good for this primary because there is a real effort to energize that Hispanic base, especially by Senator Clinton. Hispanics, in the aggregate, are more likely to vote for Clinton than for Obama. Some of this has to do with a general distrust by Hispanics of African-American politicians; when Blacks have won positions of power politically in Lake County the perception of Hispanic is that they have had no interest in Hispanic issues, only in getting their vote. This does not help Obama with that voting demographic.
On top of all this is the growing perception that Senator Obama's campaign is over. The "spiritual adviser" of twenty years, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, has shown the reality of what Obama had to commit to so as to get elected in the City of Chicago. There is nothing that Obama can say to put him outside this belief system that is not going to be strictly opportunistic.
Especially in NWI and Lake County, no one believes that he did not know about Wright's ideas. Even if they continue to support Obama, they just do not find the Obama "I did not know" defense a credible argument.
Obama, as opposed to Clinton, has had to spend all of his time shoring up his national campaign. National TV shows that he is currently doing to brace his campaign is of little value in Lake County. The only thing he has going for him is that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright decided to wait until April/May to go public. If this had happened in February, there would not be an Obama campaign.
However, it is clear though that the Obama campaign does have a lot of throw away money. He cannot be here; but his campaign has spent a fortune on mailings. In Lake County everyone is so used to this that it really is of little electoral consequence; but Hillary's walking door to door here is a Lake County political tradition that does carry weight.
Finally, in the NWI primary, especially Lake County, almost no one votes in the Republican primary, The reason for this is that no one ever runs in the Republican Party in Lake County, because the County is completely controlled by Democrats. On the Republican side there is not a single contested race. What occurs in most primaries is that independents and Republicans will, as usual, vote in the Democratic primary. This will be a good chunk, approximately 25%, of the vote and the majority of it will go to Senator Clinton. When the general election occurs, most of these people will all vote for McCain. Indiana is one of the best states for the voters splitting their ballots in the general election. The president is always Republican and the Congressional delegation is a mixture, even tending toward liberal Democrats.
Five days out, I would project that Senator Clinton will take Indiana by over 10%. Seeing the disintegration of the Obama campaign in Lake County, a stone's throw from his home, I would further project that Hillary Clinton will beat Obama in North Carolina, or come close enough to count as a win for her. If these predictions occur, although it is too late to change the delegate numbers, it does comport to the fact that Obama is un-electable.
